Five Things the Data Tells Us About Housing and What to Do About It
June 16, 2026
Five Things the Data Tells Us About Housing and What to Do About It
By Holly Fraccaro, President & CEO, Home Builders Association of Durham, Orange & Chatham Counties
June 12, 2026
Last week, HBA-DOC leaders participated in two important regional conversations: the Chamber for a Greater Chapel Hill-Carrboro’s annual State of the Community Report, and the Triangle Community Foundation's "What Matters" housing summit featuring Derek Thompson, author of Abundance. Together, they offered a useful reality check on whether we are building the kind of community we say we want.
The short answer: we're making progress, but not nearly fast enough. Here are five takeaways:
1) The Entry-Level Housing Market Has Shrunk Dramatically
In 2019, more than 1,000 Orange County home transactions closed under $300,000. In 2025, fewer than 170 did. The Orange County median sale price is now $499,000. New homes represented just 11% of all sales last year.
Elected officials consistently say they value economic inclusion and want workers at all income levels to be able to call it home. That goal is harder to achieve when the lower rungs of the housing ladder have largely disappeared. The answer, as Derek Thompson argues in Abundance, is straightforward: build more housing, of more types, at all price points.
2) Workers Are Priced Out of the Communities They Serve
74% of jobs in Orange County are filled by people who commute in from other counties. The people staffing our hospitals, classrooms, and restaurants largely cannot afford to live where they work.
This is not just an equity issue. Long commutes affect workforce reliability and make it harder for local employers to recruit and retain talent. More housing options near jobs is the most direct solution.
3) Constrained Housing Supply has Slowed Growth
Orange County grew by fewer than 760 people per year from 2020 to 2025, by far the slowest rate in the Triangle region. People want to live here, and land is available. But housing supply is significantly constrained by policy choices… many made decades ago.
Chapel Hill's 2024 expansion of the water and sewer service boundary was a meaningful step toward unlocking that capacity. The Orange County Land Use Plan process, now underway, is the next opportunity to send a clear signal that housing production is a community priority.
4) We’ve Not Built for the Next Generation
Orange County's population has grown since 2010, but 70% of that growth has come from residents aged 65 and older. The Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools recently announced the closure of an elementary school, a direct consequence of enrollment declining by more than 1,500 students since 2020.
Young families are not leaving because they dislike this community. They are not arriving because they cannot afford to. A region that is not building housing accessible to working-age families with children will gradually become one that does not have many of them. The LUMO reforms and the Orange County Land Use Plan are chances to correct that before the trend becomes harder to reverse.
5) We Have More Opportunities to Grow Than We Think
Chapel Hill and Carrboro are university towns that can support density. Ann Arbor, Boulder, and Charlottesville all do. The data shows Chapel Hill at 2,840 residents per square mile and Carrboro at 3,271, both well below comparable college communities.
That gap represents an infill development opportunity. By-right approvals for more housing types in walkable neighborhoods is exactly what the Chapel Hill LUMO reforms passed earlier this year were designed to enable. Carrboro’s pending new UDO is expected to help too.
Time to Accelerate Progress!
None of these data points should feel like an indictment, but they should prompt us to act with more urgency. The water and sewer boundary expansion and recent LUMO reforms are not small things. They reflect a real shift in how our local governments are approaching housing, and HBA DOC members played a role in making them happen.
HBA DOC’s work now is to help build on that momentum and accelerate adoption of pro-housing policies that will help our communities live up to the values we profess.
By Holly Fraccaro, President & CEO, Home Builders Association of Durham, Orange & Chatham Counties
June 12, 2026
Last week, HBA-DOC leaders participated in two important regional conversations: the Chamber for a Greater Chapel Hill-Carrboro’s annual State of the Community Report, and the Triangle Community Foundation's "What Matters" housing summit featuring Derek Thompson, author of Abundance. Together, they offered a useful reality check on whether we are building the kind of community we say we want.
The short answer: we're making progress, but not nearly fast enough. Here are five takeaways:
1) The Entry-Level Housing Market Has Shrunk Dramatically
In 2019, more than 1,000 Orange County home transactions closed under $300,000. In 2025, fewer than 170 did. The Orange County median sale price is now $499,000. New homes represented just 11% of all sales last year.
Elected officials consistently say they value economic inclusion and want workers at all income levels to be able to call it home. That goal is harder to achieve when the lower rungs of the housing ladder have largely disappeared. The answer, as Derek Thompson argues in Abundance, is straightforward: build more housing, of more types, at all price points.
2) Workers Are Priced Out of the Communities They Serve
74% of jobs in Orange County are filled by people who commute in from other counties. The people staffing our hospitals, classrooms, and restaurants largely cannot afford to live where they work.
This is not just an equity issue. Long commutes affect workforce reliability and make it harder for local employers to recruit and retain talent. More housing options near jobs is the most direct solution.
3) Constrained Housing Supply has Slowed Growth
Orange County grew by fewer than 760 people per year from 2020 to 2025, by far the slowest rate in the Triangle region. People want to live here, and land is available. But housing supply is significantly constrained by policy choices… many made decades ago.
Chapel Hill's 2024 expansion of the water and sewer service boundary was a meaningful step toward unlocking that capacity. The Orange County Land Use Plan process, now underway, is the next opportunity to send a clear signal that housing production is a community priority.
4) We’ve Not Built for the Next Generation
Orange County's population has grown since 2010, but 70% of that growth has come from residents aged 65 and older. The Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools recently announced the closure of an elementary school, a direct consequence of enrollment declining by more than 1,500 students since 2020.
Young families are not leaving because they dislike this community. They are not arriving because they cannot afford to. A region that is not building housing accessible to working-age families with children will gradually become one that does not have many of them. The LUMO reforms and the Orange County Land Use Plan are chances to correct that before the trend becomes harder to reverse.
5) We Have More Opportunities to Grow Than We Think
Chapel Hill and Carrboro are university towns that can support density. Ann Arbor, Boulder, and Charlottesville all do. The data shows Chapel Hill at 2,840 residents per square mile and Carrboro at 3,271, both well below comparable college communities.
That gap represents an infill development opportunity. By-right approvals for more housing types in walkable neighborhoods is exactly what the Chapel Hill LUMO reforms passed earlier this year were designed to enable. Carrboro’s pending new UDO is expected to help too.
Time to Accelerate Progress!
None of these data points should feel like an indictment, but they should prompt us to act with more urgency. The water and sewer boundary expansion and recent LUMO reforms are not small things. They reflect a real shift in how our local governments are approaching housing, and HBA DOC members played a role in making them happen.
HBA DOC’s work now is to help build on that momentum and accelerate adoption of pro-housing policies that will help our communities live up to the values we profess.
Contact:
Holly Fraccaro, CEO
holly@hbadoc.com
